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2025 NBA Finals: Analysis & Predictions

Andre Palome June 3, 2025
finals

🏆 2025 NBA Finals Preview

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
First Finals appearance for Thunder since 2012
First Finals appearance for Pacers since 2000


Oklahoma City Thunder player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 2025 NBA Finals
Indiana Pacers player Tyrese Haliburton. 2025 NBA Finals

Oklahoma City Thunder

Regular Season Record: 68–14 (1st in West)
Head Coach: Mark Daigneault
Playoff Path:

  • Round 1: Def. Lakers 4–1
  • Semis: Def. Nuggets 4–2
  • WCF: Def. Timberwolves 4–1

⭐ Star Power

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA)

  • 2024–25 MVP
  • Regular Season: 32.7 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.8 RPG, 2.1 SPG
  • Playoffs: 30.2 PPG, 6.7 APG, 1.8 SPG
  • Strengths: Elite in isolation, midrange killer, composed in clutch
  • Weaknesses: Relies heavily on free throws, can be targeted on switches

Chet Holmgren (C)

  • Rookie Season (played first year after injury): 14.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.3 BPG
  • Stretch big who protects the rim and shoots over 37% from 3
  • Can struggle with physicality and defensive rebounding vs bulkier bigs

Jalen Williams (G/F)

  • 20.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG in playoffs
  • Ultra-versatile wing scorer with excellent slashing ability
  • Developing shooter but still not elite from deep

🧱 Role Players

  • Lu Dort: Elite wing defender, will likely guard Haliburton
  • Isaiah Joe: Knockdown 3-point shooter off the bench (42.5% 3PT)
  • Josh Giddey: Floor general and mismatch creator, though inconsistent shooting can limit his impact

✅ Team Strengths

  • Elite Defense: Switchable defenders, top 3 in defensive rating
  • Half-Court Offense: SGA’s isolation + Holmgren spacing
  • Youth + Depth: Deep rotation with energy, everyone defends

❌ Weaknesses

  • Inexperience: Youngest team ever to reach Finals
  • Interior Rebounding: Can be dominated on the boards
  • Free Throw Reliance: Offense slows if they don’t get calls

Indiana Pacers

Regular Season Record: 47–35 (6th in East)
Head Coach: Rick Carlisle
Playoff Path:

  • Round 1: Def. Bucks 4–2
  • Semis: Def. Celtics 4–3
  • ECF: Def. Knicks 4–2

⭐ Star Power

Tyrese Haliburton (PG)

  • Regular Season: 20.7 PPG, 10.2 APG, 40.5% 3PT
  • Playoffs: 18.9 PPG, 9.7 APG
  • Maestro of transition offense, dazzling passer with deep range
  • Can disappear when defenses trap or force physicality

Pascal Siakam (F)

  • ECF MVP
  • Playoffs: 22.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.1 APG
  • Versatile forward, can score in post, midrange, or transition
  • Weakness is inconsistent shooting beyond 15 feet

🧱 Role Players

  • Myles Turner: Rim protector, stretch 5, anchors defense
  • Andrew Nembhard: Surprise playoff breakout—efficient, poised PG
  • Aaron Nesmith & Obi Toppin: Athletic wings, useful in transition
  • Bennedict Mathurin: Bench scorer, aggressive driving guard

✅ Team Strengths

  • Fastest Pace in NBA: Thrive in transition with elite passing
  • Spacing & Shooting: 5-out potential with Turner + Siakam
  • Unselfish Offense: 29.5 APG in playoffs—#1 in postseason

❌ Weaknesses

  • Defensive Consistency: Struggles against isolation-heavy teams
  • Rebounding: Below-average in team rebounding
  • Late-Game Execution: Haliburton has been shaky in 4th quarters

🔮 Series Outlook

Odds

  • Thunder: -750 (heavily favored)
  • Pacers: +525 (underdogs)

Why Thunder Are Favored:

  • Dominated tougher Western Conference
  • MVP-caliber play from SGA
  • Elite two-way balance

Why Pacers Could Pull Upset:

  • High-octane offense can destabilize OKC
  • Siakam’s Finals experience (with 2019 Raptors)
  • Haliburton’s pace can neutralize Thunder’s half-court D

🏅 Finals MVP Favorites

  1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-650): Clear favorite, focal point of offense
  2. Tyrese Haliburton (+650): Needs a breakout series
  3. Chet Holmgren (+1600): Dark horse—rim protection + shotmaking
  4. Pascal Siakam (+1800): Veteran experience could prove vital

📅 2025 NBA Finals Schedule

GameDateTime (ET)LocationTV
1Thursday, June 58:30 PMPaycom Center, Oklahoma CityABC
2Sunday, June 88:00 PMPaycom Center, Oklahoma CityABC
3Wednesday, June 118:30 PMGainbridge Fieldhouse, IndyABC
4Friday, June 138:30 PMGainbridge Fieldhouse, IndyABC
5*Monday, June 168:30 PMPaycom Center, Oklahoma CityABC
6*Thursday, June 198:30 PMGainbridge Fieldhouse, IndyABC
7*Sunday, June 228:00 PMPaycom Center, Oklahoma CityABC

*If necessary


🧠 Final Thoughts

The Thunder enter the series with the edge in talent, defense, and star power, while the Pacers aim to speed up the game and ride the hot hands of Siakam and Haliburton. Expect a clash of styles—OKC’s methodical execution versus Indiana’s fast-paced unpredictability. If the Pacers steal one on the road early, we could be in for a classic.

Prediction: Thunder 4-1

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